Phoenix AZ Housing Update – November 2013

Phoenix AZ Housing Market  Report November 2013

Phoenix AZ Real Estate Market Update – November 2013

As you can see from all the red arrows, the overall Phoenix Real Estate Market is transitioning to a more normal market and is continuing to cool off. Active Listings are the highest they’ve been in almost 2 years. UCB (Under Contract accepting Backups) are down and Pending Listings are down again for the 5th month in a row.

Sales per month are up 8.5% month over month but down over the past two years. Days On Market (DOM) is dead even with last month and up slightly over the last quarter. Days of Inventory, an indicator of how balanced our market is, stands at 114 days. As Days of Inventory increases we come closer and closer to a market that will favor neither buyers or sellers.

These are strong indicators that the overall Phoenix Real Estate Market is continuing to cool off and move towards a normal market and I believe we’ll see more of the same in November and December. I wouldn’t be surprised to see our Days of Inventory at 130 or more by the end of December.

Contract Ratio* is a great way to determine where the market is at. Is it hot, cold, a buyers market a sellers market? So that you can better understand what the current number of 49.5 means I’ve included a definition towards the bottom of this post.

Phoenix AZ Foreclosures and Short Sales

Short Sales (SS) and Lender Owned (REO) properties are still being absorbed almost as fast as they come on the market and together make up less than 20% of active listings and right at 20% of sold listings for the month of October 2013.

What Does This Mean For Buyers & Sellers?

– If you are thinking of buying a home in Phoenix in the next year or two, don’t wait, while the supply of available homes is rising, until we have a balanced market home prices will continue to rise not as fast as they have over the past 3 years but they will rise and the historically low mortgage interest rates we currently enjoy have nowhere to go but

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up. Buy now.

– If you are thinking of selling your Phoenix home in the next 12 months list it now, competition (other active listings) is still relatively low in many neighborhoods in Phoenix . And in January tougher lending guidelines will shrink the number of qualified buyers. Take advantage of the market we currently enjoy it won’t last much longer.
– Buyers who bought a home in Phoenix a year ago have seen as much as a 20% increase in value. I believe we are going to look back on 2013 much as we do 2012, a year of great opportunity. Will you take advantage of the opportunity?If you are thinking of buying or selling a home in the Phoenix Metro Area

I offer a Free Personalized Market Report.

As an informed buyer or seller you’ll make better decisions.

E-mail or call (602) 793-1627

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*Contract Ratio – “indicates how “hot” a market is. It specifically measures the number of completed sales contracts relative to the supply of active listings. It is defined as 100 x (Pending Listings + UCB Listings) / Active Listings Excluding UCB. UCB stands for Under Contract Accepting Backup Offers.

The higher the number the greater the buying activity relative to supply. If this number rises then it is a sign of growing contract activity and a positive signal for sellers. Conversely a falling number is a sign of a weakening market – either supply of active listings is increasing or contract activity is slowing, or both.

In a balanced market for normal market segments, the value of the Contract Ratio is usually between 30 and 60. When it lies below 20 the market can be considered “slow” or a “cold market”. Above 60 can be considered a “hot market” and when it moves above 100 we regard this as evidence of a “buying frenzy”. In high-end luxury

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market segments the normal level is lower, usually lying between 15 and 25.”


All content in this post is protected by copyright. © Nancy Laswick 2013.

All Rights Reserved. Dashboard Illustration courtesy of The Cromford Report by paid subscription. Please Note:All statistics and figures are reported from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) and/or The Cromford Report and are deemed to be reliable, but cannot be guaranteed for accuracy.It is recommended that any information of special interest be verified through independent sources.